Fine-scale effects of temperature and precipitation on crop yield in Norway

Abstract

A major worldwide concern is ensuring food security in the face of changing climate as global crop production faces significant challenges due to the adverse effects of climate change. Changing weather patterns and extreme events pose noteworthy obstacles to crop cultivation worldwide, particularly in areas such as Norway where agricultural productivity is affected by varied and often unpredictable weather patterns. This study investigated the historical fluctuations of Barley and Wheat yields by analyzing the effects of temperature and precipitation in Norway over 18 years spanning from 2002 to 2019. The study aimed to clarify the major climatic variables affecting agricultural yields and their spatial variations within Norwegian municipalities. Results of this study showed that barley yields are greatly impacted by extreme weather events, with production being significantly reduced by high temperatures and little rainfall throughout critical growth stages. Conversely, wheat yield is mostly sensitive to temperature fluctuations, especially in the spring and early summer. The effect of precipitation on wheat yields is less prominent. Regional variations emphasize the need for customized adaptation plans by highlighting variations in how the climate affects crop productivity in different municipalities. The research highlights the intricate relationship between crops and climate, suggesting the need for tailored strategies to improve agricultural resilience. Besides, the in-depth analysis shows the impact of different weather variables at municipality levels in Norway to understand the localized impacts of climate change on barley and wheat cultivation which acts as an effective tool for those working in the agricultural and food industries, including researchers, farmers, and policymakers.